"probabilistic forecasting" Papers

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Conference

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poster (24,624)paper (8,558)oral (1,594)spotlight (1,421)highlight (975)

Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion models

Martin Andrae, Tomas Landelius, Joel Oskarsson et al.

ICLR 2025oralarXiv:2410.05431
15
citations

Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Forecasting of Complex Dynamics

Salva Rühling Cachay, Miika Aittala, Karsten Kreis et al.

NEURIPS 2025oralarXiv:2506.20024
2
citations

SeasonBench-EA: A Multi-Source Benchmark for Seasonal Prediction and Numerical Model Post-Processing in East Asia

Mengxuan Chen, Li, Zou Ziheng et al.

NEURIPS 2025

Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Interpolants and Föllmer Processes

Yifan Chen, Mark Goldstein, Mengjian Hua et al.

ICML 2024arXiv:2403.13724
42
citations

Rolling Diffusion Models

David Ruhe, Jonathan Heek, Tim Salimans et al.

ICML 2024oralarXiv:2402.09470
76
citations